This
week, I’m going out on a limb by publicly stating an opinion I have been
expressing privately for some time: I believe Mitt Romney will defeat Barack
Obama in a near landslide comparable to Ronald Reagan’s win over Jimmy Carter
in 1980.
Many
of my friends and family, while hoping I’m right, actually think I’m crazy. My
wife fears that there is now a disproportionate number of people in America who
have gotten used to the idea of having things handed to them by government, rather
than cherishing the opportunity to work for those things themselves.
After
the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare this summer, my brother, who lives in the
battleground state of Missouri, announced with resignation that, “Obama has
just been re-elected.” He reaffirmed that belief recently, during the Todd Akin
flap in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race, by once again declaring his state all but
lost for Republicans, including Mitt Romney.
A
close friend, with whom I have worked on numerous campaigns and who now works
for a conservative lobbying organization, has a tendency to fret about all
things political. He has been a basket case over the possibility of Obama, part
two.
I
point out to him that no president from either party since FDR’s second
campaign in 1936 has ever been re-elected with an unemployment rate even
approaching the numbers we are seeing today. I tell him that any incumbent
president who cannot get his poll numbers above 50 percent cannot and will not
win.
Sometimes
my friend’s anxiety is temporarily assuaged, but there is no doubt in my mind
that he will sleep much better after he has seen my prediction come true on
November 6th. (Won’t we all?)
Now
comes a scientific study of presidential elections, from a pair of faculty
members at the University of Colorado, which reinforces the political gut
feeling that has been driving my prophecies to a large degree. The long-term
model used for this study is the brainchild of Professors Kenneth Bickers and
Michael Berry, working at CU’s Boulder and Denver campuses, respectively. Their
prototype, Bickers and Berry stress, analyzes economic data from the 50 states
and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures,
as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
Since
1980, their model has accurately predicted every presidential election. Their
analysis was accurate even in those years when there was a strong third party
candidate running (John Anderson in 1980 and Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996).
Perhaps most impressive, their model worked in predicting that Al Gore would
win the popular vote in 2000 while losing the electoral vote to George W. Bush.
So
what does the model forecast for 2012? They predict that Mitt Romney will
soundly defeat Barack Obama by winning 32 states, 53 percent of the popular
vote and a whopping 320 electoral votes (270 are needed to win).
“The
apparent advantage of being a Democratic candidate and holding the White House
disappears,” Professor Berry notes, “when the national unemployment rate hits
5.6 percent. The incumbency advantage enjoyed by President Obama, though
statistically significant, is not great enough to offset high rates of
unemployment currently experienced in many of the states.”
Berry
and Bickers are predicting that Romney will defeat Obama in almost every battleground
state, as well as a few the GOP hasn’t won in decades. These include North
Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota,
Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida and, yes, the “show me” state of Missouri.
Bickers
notes that their election prediction model suggests that “presidential
elections are about big things and the stewardship of the national economy.
It’s not about gaffes, political commercials or day-to-day campaign tactics. I
find that heartening for our democracy.
“Based
on our forecasting model,” Professor Bickers adds, “it becomes clear that the
president is in electoral trouble.”
As
my little sister, who lives in the battleground state of Iowa, would say, “From
his lips to God’s ears!”
©
2012 by Doug Patton
Doug
Patton describes himself as a recovering political speechwriter who agrees with
himself more often than not. Now working as a freelance writer, his weekly
columns are syndicated exclusively by Cagle Cartoons newspaper syndicate.
Astute supporters and inane detractors alike are encouraged to email him with
their pithy comments at dpatton@cagle.com. For info on using
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