Friday, December 14, 2012

Drumbeat of Terry's Vulnerability in 2014 Continues


We told you earlier in the week that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had Lee Terry of one its targets for robocalls on the budget, having determined he is vulnerable in 2014.

Today, Sabato's Crystal Ball has an analysis of potential vulnerable congressman in 2014.    While we believe it is too early to even speculate, we believe that a well run campaign by Terry in 2014 will easily defeat any challenger including a return fight should John Ewing be dumb enough to give it a try.   We don't think he will because his position of Douglas County Treasurer is also up that year and we think it's a sure thing that he can get re-elected to that then try to do an Esch and find himself losing a second bid for congress.   In Ewing's case he'd also lose his $100,000 a year plus augmentation to his $100,000 a year police pension.  

Also, as Sabato notes in his earlier dialogue, most mid-terms and most elections during the sixth year of a presidency result in the  (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/house-2014-a-narrowing-battlefield/) president's party losing house seats.    Additionally, we'd suggest that in a non-presidential year that conservative turnout would be greater, again aiding Terry.

Back to Sabato, here is what he had to say about Terry.

"Back in the Plains, a stellar Democratic campaign might endanger Rep. Lee Terry (R) in Nebraska’s 2nd District. After running enough ahead of Republican presidential nominee John McCain to survive in 2008 — Obama won the district and its electoral vote that year, thanks to the way the Cornhusker State allocates its electoral votes — Terry won a narrower victory (less than three points) this time, despite Romney carrying the district."





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