Thursday, September 27, 2012

Our Rising Pessimism

In the last week we've share two articles that expressed a certain degree of pessimism about the upcoming presidential election.   Obviously, our fair and objective leanings are to Mitt Romney, but things will have to change substantially if Mitt is to pull this out.   Once again forgive our less than optimistic feelings.

Sadly, we have the following from Sabato's Crystal Ball which certainly is yet another building block in our pessimistic attitude.  You can find the entire article at:   We hope something changes.....

By Kyle Kondik, Larry J. Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley
U.Va. Center for Politics

"Three weeks after the Democratic National Convention, we see little indication that the lead President Barack Obama took after it has faded. Obama is leading Mitt Romney by about four percentage points nationally, according to an average of national horserace surveys, and his edge has trickled down to the swing states.

So with 40 days to go, we're moving several toss-up states in the president's direction. Our changes push Obama over the magic 270 mark, but we are not calling the race. First, the debates are yet to come. There is at least the possibility that, if Romney fares particularly well or Obama does poorly, the drift of this contest could change. Second, other events -- international (a crisis) or domestic (dramatically poor economic numbers) -- could theoretically occur to re-write the narrative of the race. So caution is always in order with almost six weeks to go, yet President Obama clearly leads at the moment. "

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